PSU Bank Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025
PSU Bank Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025
PSU Bank Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025
PSU Bank Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025
By K Karthik Raja
Key Factors Affecting and Reasons:
- Global economic trends: Rate decisions from central banks and global inflation trends are influencing banking stocks.
- Government policies: PSU banks benefit from government capital infusion plans and reforms.
- Interest rate movements: Higher rates improve NIMs for banks, supporting profitability.
- Credit growth and NPA trends: Improving asset quality and rising credit demand bolster the sector.
Key Watch:
- Upcoming RBI policy: Impact on lending rates and liquidity.
- Quarterly results: Watch for NIMs, loan growth, and asset quality.
- Global cues: US Fed moves and global bond yields affecting FII inflows.
- Privatization news: Government plans on PSU bank privatization could trigger momentum.
Volume Analysis:
- Recent volume spikes indicate heavy institutional activity.
- A notable volume surge during downswings suggests profit booking at higher levels.
- Sustained higher volumes near support zones could hint at accumulation.
Chart Analysis and Observations:
- Moving averages:
- Price trading below the 50, 150, and 200 DMA signals bearish momentum.
- 200 DMA at 6817 acts as a strong resistance; reclaiming this level can reverse trends.
- Parabolic SAR: Current positioning above the price suggests continued downtrend pressure.
- Indicators:
- RSI (14) at 42.10: Near oversold territory but not signaling reversal yet.
- CCI (-92.33): Indicates bearish sentiment with potential for bounce if it crosses -100 upwards.
- MACD: Bearish crossover with negative histogram suggests weakness persists.
- Support and resistance levels:
- Support: Around 5950 (recent low); breach could take it to approximately 5700.
- Resistance: Around 6320 (50 DMA), followed by 6658 (150 DMA).
Stocks to Watch:
- Positive bias if market rebounds: SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank.
- Caution: Avoid weaker PSU names until clear reversal emerges.
Market Insights:
Short-term view (1-2 weeks):
- Weak bias unless index reclaims 6320.
- Traders should be cautious; oversold indicators may offer relief rallies.
Long-term view (3-6 months):
- Structural trend remains bullish if 5700 support holds.
- Break above 6817 could resume the prior uptrend targeting 7200 and above.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before investing.
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